Perancangan Aplikasi Peramalan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Pada Kecamatan Medan Timur Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Medan Timur District is one of the administrative areas in Medan City that faces challenges in dealing with poverty issues. However, limitations in the predictive system mean that the available data is only historical in nature without being able to provide an overview of future needs. This has an impact on the less than optimal effectiveness of social assistance programs and poverty alleviation policies that are implemented. To overcome these problems, this study aims to design an application for forecasting the number of poor people using the Double Exponential Smoothing method. This method was chosen because of its ability to handle data with trend patterns, so that it can provide more accurate prediction results. This application is designed to utilize historical data on the number of poor people as the basis for calculating forecasts. The predictive information produced is expected to help Medan Timur District Office employees in preparing more targeted programs, increasing the efficiency of resource allocation, and accelerating the decision-making process. The final results of this study indicate that the application developed is able to provide accurate forecasts of the number of poor people for several periods into the future, so that it can support strategic policy planning in Medan Timur District. This research makes a real contribution to the use of technology for poverty alleviation at the local level