Peramalan Jumlah Permintaan Gula Menggunakan Metode Trend Projection Pada PT. Medan Sugar Industry

Abstract

PT. Medan Sugar Industry is one of the major companies in Indonesia engaged in the production and distribution of sugar. However, this company faces challenges in managing fluctuating market demand, so that it often experiences stock imbalances that impact operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. This study aims to develop a sugar demand forecasting system using the Trend Projection method, which is expected to be able to provide more accurate demand predictions based on historical data. The research method involves data collection through observation, interviews, and sampling of historical sugar demand data. The research stages include needs analysis, system design, program writing, method implementation, program testing, and system maintenance. The Trend Projection method is applied to analyze trend patterns from historical data to predict future demand. The results of the study show that the Trend Projection method can provide fairly accurate sugar demand projections, with minimal error rates compared to actual data. This system helps companies in developing more efficient production and distribution strategies, thereby reducing the risk of excess or shortage of stock. The implementation of this system is expected to improve operational efficiency, reduce storage costs, and strengthen the competitiveness of PT. Medan Sugar Industry in the market